I have written about Poppi in this newsletter more times than almost any other brand.
The 88x return for CAVU. The $1.95 billion exit. The 7 signals that separated it from the dozens of functional beverage brands that plateau at $5 million. I used it as the proof point for an entire thesis about category timing, DSD distribution and exiting at peak velocity.
The filing published this month complicates part of what I wrote. On 5 September 2026, PepsiCo marked the fair value of Poppi’s earnout at $12 million.
In June it was $117 million. In December it was $278 million. The original agreement was for up to $300 million, payable only if Poppi hit undisclosed performance milestones by the third quarter of 2027.
Bloomberg Intelligence beverages analyst Kenneth Shea put it plainly: “At this rate, it seems plausible that they may not pay any of the $300 million unless Poppi’s performance rebounds markedly over the next year.”
This is the rarest thing in consumer M&A. A public, quantified, mark-to-market view of what happened after the exit everybody celebrated. We write endlessly about deals. We almost never see year two.
Here is year 2.
