This one came in last week and I haven’t been able to stop thinking about it.
A reader, a brand manager at a mid-sized beauty company sent this:
“David, the contrast this year is insane. Gwen Stefani just quietly shut GXVE Beauty after four years. Drew Barrymore’s Flower Beauty closed after thirteen. Kate Moss’s brand liquidated. Meanwhile, Hailey Bieber just sold Rhode to e.l.f. for a billion dollars. Hailey isn’t more famous than Gwen Stefani. She’s not more talented. She doesn’t have a bigger following. So what actually separates the wins from the losses? I’m trying to pitch a celebrity partnership to my boss and I need a framework, not just vibes.”
One of the best question I’ve received all year. In the last twelve months:
Gwen Stefani’s GXVE Beauty shut down in February 2026, four years after launching with Sephora distribution and VC backing from New Theory Ventures, the same firm that funded Selena Gomez’s Rare Beauty.
Drew Barrymore’s Flower Beauty closed in September 2025 after thirteen years in business.
Kate Moss’s Cosmoss brand liquidated in July 2025.
Pat McGrath Labs, arguably the most critically acclaimed makeup brand of the last decade, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2026.
And simultaneously:
Rhode, Hailey Bieber’s skincare brand was acquired by e.l.f. Beauty for $1 billion in July 2025. When Rhode launched at Sephora last fall, it sold three products per second, marking Sephora North America’s biggest brand debut ever, with $10 million in opening-weekend sales.
Rare Beauty (Selena Gomez) is valued at $1.1 billion.
Fenty Beauty (Rihanna) is still the standard against which all celebrity beauty is measured.
Same industry. Same era. Same celebrity formula. Completely different outcomes.
Before we get to the framework, here’s the thing everyone gets wrong about celebrity brands:
